David Cameron: Still an enemy of good?

A smiling 3 year old Aylan Kurdi. His aunt wants the world to see this picture and since I previously
shared the other one, I, too, want the world to see what we really lost.

This week, UK Prime Minister David Cameron argued that firefighters should not rescue children from burning buildings because the preferable action is to put the fire out.

Okay, obviously that’s not a verbatim quote, and he wasn’t actually discussing fires. He was reasserting hisrefusal to resettle more Syrian refugees: 

“We have taken a number of genuine asylum seekers from Syrian refugee camps and we keep that under review, but we think the most important thing is to try to bring peace and stability to that part of the world.  

“I don’t think there is an answer that can be achieved simply by taking more and more refugees.”

Cameron and his idea of a perfect response were the enemy of good. The plan of action he has suggested truly is the equivalent to firefighters refusing to rescue children because they prefer the ideal of rescuing the entire building.

Thankfully, he reversed course slightly and said on Friday that the UK would accept “thousands” of refugees and provide £100million (approx. $151 million) in assistance for those in camps in Syria, Turkey, Jordan and Lebanon.

Does this mean he and his stance are no longer an enemy of good?

I doubt it.

No one has suggested the resettlement of refugees is the only action appropriate to handling the crisis. Ideally the establishment of a stable, peaceful end to the conflict should be the goal of everyone.

But it is unlikely this conflict will come to an end soon. First, the diffusion of power into numerous factions suggests the identities of the individuals who can end the conflict through a negotiated peace are at best unclear and at worst exaggerated.

There also appears to be no real willingness by those involved to negotiate with one another. There are not substantial, ongoing negotiations between the various parties (even if we simply exclude ISIS from the hopes of a negotiated peace).

This means there would need to be a victory from one side or the other. Nothing about the conflict suggests that will happen anytime soon.

Historical trends in other civil wars suggest that the best outcome we can expect is for the Syrian civil war to end sometime between 2018-2020. Unfortunately, the Syrian civil war has several conditions that suggest it will last much longer.

Even those outside commentators focused on how the war can end have mostly stopped guessing when that will occur (except for the parties to the conflict, who have each promised an imminent victory since the war’s start).

So the best outcome we can expect is another 3-5 more years of refugees fleeing from Syria. Planning for peace must not be used as an excuse to leave uncared for those who have been displaced by war.

Four million Syrians have fled the state, with the number of refugees steadily increasing since 2012. Another 7.6 million Syrians are believed to be internally displaced, meaning they have been forced from their homes but have not yet left Syria. 

That means that there are already 7.6 million vulnerable Syrians who may be in need of a way out soon.

The failure of states like the UK, US, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, Poland, Finland, and others, have left Syria’s neighbors largely responsible those who have fled.

The unsustainable nature of this is already showing. Lebanon is hosting approximately one Syrian for every 4 Lebanese residents. For every 100,000 inhabitants, Jordan has approximately 87 Syrian refugees and Turkey is hosting 21.

These numbers have proven crushing to local resources and are adding to domestic tensions. In May, Lebanon ordered the UN refugee agency (the UN High Commissioner for Refugees) to stop registering new refugees. The state simply couldn't continue bearing the burden largely on its own. This leaves anyone trying to flee into Lebanon in an even more vulnerable position.

The UK, on the other hand, has resettled only 216 refugees in total. It has also granted asylum – protection to Syrians already in the state (usually under some other visa, like a student one) – to “just under 5,000 Syrians” according to fullfact.org. This means that since 2011, the UK has protected, at most 5,216, Syrians, or 1 Syrian for every 12,183 people in the UK.

Even if the UK were to add thousands as Cameron has promised, it is likely to still be under-performing. If the UK were to double its current record it is still barely scrapping around 1% of the number of refugees Lebanon is housing (and there's still 6,000+ inhabitants for every refugee). 

This failure has severely exacerbated the crisis – as has the Cameron government’s previous commitment to cutting international assistance. In the midst of the largest humanitarian crisis since WWII, the UK is joining other states including Austria, Belgium, Japan, Finland, France, and Australia in reducing the percentage of its budget dedicated to foreign aid.

So the UK and others won't resettle refugees within the state and they are unwilling to support the work of international organisations and NGOs who are responding to the crisis. 

Consequently, the World Food Program has repeatedly had to slash food assistance to refugees in Lebanon, Turkey and Jordan.

Last week, the WFP had to “drop one-third of Syrian refugees from its food voucher program,” meaning 229,000 Syrian refugees in Jordan are now more vulnerable than before. Even with these cuts, the organisation still needs approximately £155 million ($236 million) to keep the program going.

No major donors have stepped forward.

Cameron’s intentionally naive excuse for his response – that the best answer is an end to the conflict – ignores the fact that his foreign aids cuts increase instability in the region and are likely to contribute to a recidivism to conflict if we ever do achieve a tenuous peace.

The ghettoizing of refugees in places like Lebanon, Turkey, and Jordan, creates instability. It is not that the refugees themselves are threatening, but that the conditions of the camps and urban centres are inherently dangerous. The areas are overcrowded, and basic Maslovian needs, like adequate food, water, appropriate shelter, are going unmet or under-fulfilled.

People who are used to providing for themselves are now unable to work, meaning the situation feels particularly desperate. Many are looking for a way out, to start a new life where they can again provide for themselves and meet basic needs.  

Without that opportunity, they are likely to turn to unlawful means of supporting themselves, creating conflict with local communities. 

Add to all of that the undercurrent of ethnic tensions that are contributing to the conflict itself, and it becomes clear that the concentration of refugees in camps in neighbouring states becomes unsustainable and treacherous. 

This is why you see people fleeing further and further into Europe. 

They are fleeing strategically. Knowing what they have fled, many hope not to repeat that history by landing in states like Hungary, where they face oppression, marginalization, and discrimination, forced into camps and then again into underground labour. 

The UK’s delay in providing relief to a sustainable number of Syrian refugees has created the situation in Calais, where 2,000-5,000 refugees wait with the hope of getting to England.

It has contributed to the situation in Budapest, where thousands of refugees staged a sit-in before beginning to walk 110 miles (180km) in the hopes of getting to Austria and Germany.

And it is likely to contribute to many more desperate scenarios.

These developments are, in part, the consequence of Cameron’s prior actions, and correcting the situation demands a significant shift in policy.

Seriously, can we just say a collective thank you to

Germany, Austria, and the volunteers in both countries for their response

to the problems in Budapest? 

And a collective “boo” to Hungary*, which has so very quickly forgotten its own history.

Or, perhaps, sadly, it has remembered it and decided intentionally to relive a different part of it… 

Either way, Hungary, please stop being Europe’s racisty distant uncle that 
we're embarrassed to have over for holiday dinners but have to 
invite anyhow because you're "family", even though that's only by marriage.

All of this means that Cameron’s commitment this week to resettle “thousands” of refugees and to donate £100 million ($151 million) is very little and quite late. The use of “thousands” rather than “tens of thousands” suggests to me that Cameron’s government is attempting to placate public outcry over Aylan Kurdi’s death by doing the bare minimum.

He wants us to believe that his commitment to peace excuses his responsibility to help alleviate the refugee crisis. It does not.  His current begrudging attempt to contribute the bare minimum is contemptible.

Three-year-old Aylan Kurdi’s death has been a clear reminder of the dire consequences of Cameron’s policies.  His announcement this week is a nice improvement, but it’s not enough and UK citizens should let him know that.

I’ve already given a list of things you can do to help Syrians. Once again, please don’t try to go yourself, and don’t send “in-kind” donations; support the professionals who do this work.

Below is the original list of organisations who could use your donations to provide tangible help along with a few additions. I will only recommend reputable NGOs and international organisations with which I already have a personal connection or that I know through friends are doing good work. Anytime I blog about Syria, I’ll be sharing this list. 

UNHCR: the office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees processes refugee claims, provides housing, food and medical care. 

UNICEF: the UN International Children's Emergency Fund focuses its efforts on children, providing immunizations, education, shelter, and food.

Church World Service: They help resettle refugees and are also lobbying Congress to do more for Syrians.

Danish Refugee Council: Provides food, shelter, and assistance to refugees efficiently and with a long track record of successful operations. Note that the donations need to be made in Danish krone, so you have to convert your US dollars, which you can do here, or you just know that as of today $5 is about 33 krone. 

ICRC: the International Committee of the Red Cross also provides food, shelter, and medical care to refugees. 

UN World Food Program: By providing food vouchers, the program allows for both a sense of autonomy and a chance for local communities and refugees to work together.

MercyCorps: Working to secure food, water, and shelter needs for Syrian refugees.

World Vision:  provides food, shelter, and medical care

*Obviously, the collective boo and racisty uncle comments are not intended to be a reflection of all Hungarians, but rather Hungarian governmental policy.